Preparing For Unforeseen Challenges During The 2024 Election Season

Capitol dome behind barbed wire and leafless tree.

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms, concerns about potential civil unrest and security challenges are mounting, particularly in the event of a contested race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

At a Glance

The 2024 U.S. presidential election faces heightened security concerns due to potential civil unrest.
Businesses and government entities are implementing proactive strategies to address potential disturbances.
The post-election period, especially if results are disputed, presents a heightened risk for unrest.
Law enforcement and security agencies are better prepared following lessons learned from previous elections.
Disinformation is identified as a significant factor that could accelerate civil unrest.

Lessons from Recent Elections

The 2022 U.S. midterm elections occurred without significant political violence, contrary to fears of a repeat of the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. This peaceful outcome can be attributed to improved vigilance by law enforcement and the absence of a national figure inciting violence. However, the threat of political violence has remained a concern since the January 6 insurrection, with warnings from agencies like the Department of Homeland Security.

Changes since January 6 include criticism from Republican leaders and social media companies’ efforts to combat misinformation. Law enforcement has also been more aggressive, with nearly 1,000 people charged related to January 6 and increased scrutiny on groups like the Proud Boys.

Preparing for Potential Unrest

Military experts and state/local officials are conducting tabletop simulations to prepare for potential election violence or unrest. These exercises, held at the University of Pennsylvania, involved over three dozen participants and highlighted the need for law enforcement to prepare for civil unrest and ensure the physical safety of polls.

Businesses and governments are also taking precautions. Security companies like Allied Universal are being sought for additional protection due to concerns of imminent threats. In cities like Portland, businesses are preparing by boarding up windows.

Post-Election Risks

While Election Day itself is not expected to be the highest risk for unrest due to protective measures in place, the greater risk is anticipated post-election, especially if results are contested in courts. Critical post-election dates, such as vote certification and presidential inauguration, pose considerable challenges in an increasingly polarized political environment.

“What our tabletop exercise identified is that the use of the Insurrection Act could enable a president to issue orders that would supersede those of a governor, especially regarding the deployment of the National Guard,” said retired General Joseph Votel.

The potential for unrest may increase if the election outcome is tightly contested, particularly if Trump loses to Harris. Verisk, a risk management company, ranks the US among the top five high-risk countries for civil unrest in the next year, with urban centers like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Houston identified as potential hotspots.

Security Measures and Challenges

Protections are in place against voter intimidation and incidents like swatting attacks at voting sites. However, authorities in Washington and Oregon are investigating incidents involving incendiary devices at ballot drop boxes, highlighting the ongoing security challenges.

Legal ambiguities in the military chain of command could potentially allow illegal orders without personal legal risk, underscoring the complexity of maintaining order during a contested election period. As the nation braces for the 2024 election, the balance between ensuring public safety and protecting democratic processes remains a critical concern for officials and citizens alike.