Odds Makers Now See Kamala Harris Moving Ahead Of Biden As The Democratic Nominee

(NationalUSNews.com) — Things are looking up for Vice President Kamala Harris amongst her Democratic base, although it’s not hard to look good next to President Joe Biden. Recent betting markets data shows Harris surpassed Biden as the most likely candidate to become the party’s nominee and pressure on the president to drop out of the race continues to mount.

On Thursday, July 9, traders at PredictIt gave Biden a 38% chance of heading the Democratic Party’s ticket in November, while Harris received a 44% chance. Just a day prior, those numbers were almost reversed, with Biden at 43% and Harris at 38%. The data shows that gamblers looking to bet on the race are increasingly confident in Harris topping the ticket.

PolyMarket, another betting prediction market, gave Biden a 38% chance of remaining the nominee, while Harris was predicted at 42%. Mirroring PredictIt’s numbers, those percentages were drastically reversed the day prior, with 69% predicting Biden and only 20% predicting Harris.

BetUS also showed Harris ahead of Biden at 20% to the president’s 18.18%. Their numbers also showed former President Donald Trump surging ahead, coming in at an implied probability of the GOP candidacy of 69.23%. BetUS public relations director Timothy Williams said the line tends to move based on several factors, including outside input from oddsmakers to how the betting public places wagers. Williams said the data indicates that “significant recent betting actions” on Harris are rolling in, and that the same goes for Trump.

Williams added that betting markets tend to “predict future outcomes” of elections fairly accurately, and that “if history holds true,” Americans may be heading toward an election between Trump and Harris rather than Trump and Biden.

Lindsey Singer, public relations director for PredictIt, said one of the great things about betting markets is they track “public reactions to events in real time” without having to wait for polls. Singer said it was an “interesting time” in the markets for the Democratic nominee, and that a new frontrunner could emerge instantly, especially in light of Biden’s terrible first debate performance and subsequent concerns about his ability to serve a second term.