Russia-China’s Strategic Moves In Indo-Pacific Threaten US Naval Dominance

The United States faces emerging challenges to its naval supremacy in the Indo-Pacific due to increasing military cooperation between Russia and China.

At a Glance

Russia is transferring submarine technology to China, threatening U.S. underwater dominance.
China’s rapid military expansion aims to contest the U.S. around Taiwan and the South China Sea.
The U.S. Navy’s current fleet is insufficient against China’s growing maritime capabilities.
Increasing Russia-China cooperation complicates U.S. strategic interests in the region.

Military Cooperation Between Russia and China

Russia’s transfer of submarine technology to China signals potential challenges to U.S. naval supremacy in the Indo-Pacific. U.S. Navy Admiral Samuel Paparo warns of Russia’s aid to China, which could close the gap between their underwater capabilities. The alignment between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran creates a complex geopolitical environment for the U.S., particularly concerning strategic areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Admiral Paparo highlights that Russian technology, especially in submarine quieting, could enhance China’s anti-access/area denial capabilities. Additionally, the Chinese military benefits significantly from Russian arms, strengthening its presence in disputed regions. Both countries’ leaders affirm strong security cooperation, further complicating U.S. geopolitical strategy.

The Era of Total #US Submarine Dominance Over #China Is Ending

New Chinese submarines and sensors to catch U.S. subs will alter the balance of power.

For decades, the U.S. hasn’t had to worry much about China’s submarines. They were noisy and easy to track. The Chinese… pic.twitter.com/XR0lWDMl5H

— Indo-Pacific News – Geo-Politics & Defense (@IndoPac_Info) November 21, 2023

Implications for U.S. Naval Strategy

The U.S. Navy, currently with 49 nuclear-powered attack submarines, falls short of the 66 necessary for viable defense strategies against China. The importance of the AUKUS nuclear-submarine initiative is magnified under these circumstances. Partnerships and infrastructure development, such as posturing repair and rearming in Australia, are analogous to the U.S. strategy during World War II.

“I expect Russia to provide submarine technology to the PRC that has the potential of closing American undersea dominance over the PRC,” Admiral Samuel Paparo, who leads the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said in a statement.

Strategic adaptability is paramount, with analysts predicting potential China-Taiwan conflicts by 2027. Preparation involves readying bases and tenders to sustain operations, mirroring WWII initiatives. China’s expansive maritime capabilities pose a direct challenge, pressing the U.S. and its allies to strengthen military readiness and intelligence-sharing.

China’s ambitions to challenge U.S. naval supremacy suffered a major setback when its newest nuclear-powered attack submarine sank during construction earlier this year. https://t.co/lHQmFiFpZ2

— National Interest (@TheNatlInterest) October 9, 2024

Complexity of Sino-Russian Relations

While China’s military modernization is bolstered by Russian prowess, their relations could strain over differing interests. The China-Russia partnership presents simultaneous threats to U.S. security in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Despite no clear operational synergy, their joint exercises have increased in scope and intensity.

China’s support for Russia includes supplying dual-use items for the Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, North Korea’s involvement brings further complexity to their strategic framework, potentially affecting regional stability and challenging U.S. military efforts. These developments underscore the need for a renewed and robust U.S. defense strategy in the region.