Al-Jolani Seeks Iraq’s Neutral Stance As Syrian Tensions Rise

Magnifying glass over the Middle East and Egypt.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, a leader of the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has issued a fervent plea to Iraq’s prime minister to maintain neutrality as Syria’s conflict rages on.

At a Glance

The Syrian conflict has escalated with new offensives and shifting international focus.
Iran and Hezbollah’s influence in Syria is waning as Russia diverts attention to Ukraine.
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani’s appeal seeks to prevent Iraq from intervening in Syria’s strife.
Potential involvement from Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi fueled by calls for military support.

Regional Dynamics and Conflict Escalation

The resurgence of conflict in Syria follows renewed tensions in the Middle East, notably the Hamas attacks on Israel. Bashar al-Assad’s regime, though diminished, holds major urban centers with aid from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah support. However, recent Israeli strikes have weakened these external backers, while Russia’s priorities lie elsewhere due to their commitments in Ukraine.

While the Syrian war never truly ended, it’s been overshadowed by various regional crises and accessibility barriers for the media. Despite holding strategic cities, Assad’s regime has not restored its control to pre-2011 levels. HTS, leading a coalition of rebel factions, has succeeded in capturing regions previously under regime control in a significant military push from Idlib.

HTS’s Rebranding and Strategic Offensive

HTS emerged from al-Qaeda affiliations, seeking broader support through ideological rebranding. Their recent operations demonstrate the fragmented political territory in northern Syria, with distinct groups ruling various areas. This rebel force’s advancement has included the acquisition of military hardware, aiming towards Hama despite anticipations of government counterattacks.

Geir Pedersen, UN envoy to Syria, said, “The latest developments pose severe risks to civilians and have serious implications for regional and international security… No Syrian party or existing group of actors can resolve the Syrian conflict via military means.”

Renewed hostilities draw international concern. The United Nations has consistently urged a political solution, highlighting the lack of progress under Security Council resolution 2254, which advocates a peaceful Syrian future.

Geopolitical Tensions and Iraq’s Role

Al-Jolani appealed to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, urging disengagement from Syria’s conflict. This plea disputes movements, such as those by Kataeb Hezbollah, seeking Iraqi intervention to assist pro-Assad forces. Despite these calls, Iraq denies involvement beyond its borders, though concerns linger with vehicular deployments to fortify the Syrian border.

The influx of 200 Iraqi fighters aligned with Iran has been reported, although such claims remain officially unendorsed. Iraq’s past confrontations with groups such as the Islamic State keep officials wary of overreach into foreign territorial disputes.