Taiwan Navigates Diplomatic Uncertainty Amid Vatican’s Evolving Ties with China

American and Taiwanese flags waving in the sky.

In the wake of Pope Francis’ passing, Taiwan faces unprecedented diplomatic challenges as the Vatican’s relations with China evolve.

Key Insights

The Vatican is the only European state that maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
Beijing expressed condolences over Pope Francis’ death, aiming to improve ties with the Vatican.
A historic agreement on appointing bishops in China is a focal point for Vatican-China relations.
Any formal deal with China requires the Vatican to sever ties with Taiwan, causing concern for Taipei.

Diplomatic Balancing Act

The death of Pope Francis marked a turning point for Taiwan’s international relations as the Vatican reassesses its ties with China. As the Holy See is the only European state that diplomatically acknowledges Taiwan, any shift in relations could have significant implications. President William Lai had initially planned to attend the papal funeral, yet in a move underscoring the diplomatic delicacy, the Vatican ultimately decided to send a former vice president instead.

This decision underscores Taiwan’s precarious position amid shifting allegiances. The Vatican’s 2018 agreement on bishop appointments with China highlights the evolving relationship that raises concerns in Taipei about the future of diplomatic recognition.

Varying Perspectives on Vatican-China Relations

Beijing conveyed condolences for Pope Francis while expressing a desire to bolster its relations with the Vatican. Some experts maintain there is uncertainty due to unresolved issues, particularly regarding Taiwan’s diplomatic status, as the Vatican currently recognizes Beijing over Taipei. China’s foreign ministry emphasized the “constructive” momentum, a sentiment the Vatican will likely take into account when electing the next pope. With China having between 8 to 12 million Catholics compared to Taiwan’s less than 300,000, the religious considerations are significant.

Pope Francis previously saw China as “a promise and a hope” for the Catholic Church. Many expect the new pope to consider the Church’s objectives globally while potentially navigating a middle path between maintaining relations with Taiwan and improving ties with China.

Taiwan’s Stakes amid Reinforcing Ties

With the Vatican being Taiwan’s most symbolically significant diplomatic partner, any diplomatic pivot could lead to substantial strategic setbacks for Taiwan. China’s condition for countries to sever diplomatic ties with Taiwan could hold implications if the Vatican formally aligns with Beijing. Critics within the Church have raised concerns about the engagement with China. George Weigel termed the 2018 provisional agreement as “degrading, embarrassing, and evangelically destructive,” emphasizing the controversial nature of the Vatican’s efforts with China.

The potential election of Cardinal Pietro Parolin, a proponent of engagement with China, might signal continuity in policies initiated under Pope Francis. Yet, as the next pope takes office, the balancing act between Taiwan and China relations remains one of the most pressing issues.

Implications for the Catholic Church

The Vatican’s challenge lies in ensuring religious autonomy amidst China’s governance, stressing the tension between religious freedom and the Chinese Communist Party’s sensitivities. Cardinal Raymond Burke articulated strong criticism against the engagement, claiming the 2018 agreement failed to address China’s human rights violations and undermined the Vatican’s moral authority.

As the Catholic Church considers the election of a new pope, the challenge remains to enforce previously established agreements transparently and ensure that both spiritual and diplomatic objectives are balanced.